Hitting the corners
Is there anything harder than iceing a penalty with the world watching?
It used to be that conceding a penalty was fatal. Goals in international football are like gold; precious and hard to come by.
I read the conversion rate at the 2026 World Cup has dropped to a lowly 65%.
Why? Unlike lengthening golf courses, the penalty spot remains the same, a meagre 12 yards from goal. The difference is analytics. Goalkeepers are now armed with data—tendencies, patterns, preferred sides—to help make the right guess.
Colombia vs Switzerland, Vancouver, last Monday. Goalless after 120 minutes. Penalties. Davinson Sánchez hits the bar. Cucho Hernández—saved. Switzerland through 4-3. Colombia heartbroken—again, having suffered the same fate against England in 2018.
Damn data is everywhere. Keepers know where you go. So the answer is simple, well, not really, hit the corners, yes. But then, it might pay to twist and go straight down the middle, knowing the keeper will go one way or the other. Is there anything harder to do than score a penalty with the world watching?
Wednesday. Atlanta. England vs Argentina. The semifinal.
1986. Mexico City. Maradona’s Hand of God. Then, four minutes later, the Goal of the Century. England eliminated—forty years of hurt, a phrase, a song, a national identity built around it.
Now here they are again. Lionel Messi and Jude Bellingham. Argentina the defending champions. England believing, again, that this might finally be the time, the time when it finally comes home.
If it goes to penalties—and it might—someone will be tasked with hitting a corner under the most diabolical pressure.
The penalty hasn’t changed. Everything around it has.
C’mon England. Have some.
Nick
